BRAZIL PUSHES FORWARD WITH CORN EXPORTS, SHIPPING MORE THAN HALF OF NOVEMBER/24 TOTAL

BRAZIL’S CORN EXPORTS IN NOVEMBER ARE OUTPERFORMING THE SAME PERIOD LAST YEAR. ACCORDING TO THE FOREIGN TRADE SECRETARIAT (SECEX), THE COUNTRY HAS SHIPPED 2,676,245.2 TONS OF UNMOLDED CORN (EXCLUDING SWEET CORN) SO FAR THIS MONTH, ALREADY ACCOUNTING FOR 56% OF THE TOTAL NOVEMBER 2024 EXPORT VOLUME OF 4,726,353 TONS.

THE DAILY AVERAGE OF SHIPMENTS DURING THE FIRST 10 BUSINESS DAYS OF THE MONTH IS 267,624.5 TONS, UP 7.6% FROM 248,755.4 TONS PER BUSINESS DAY DURING THE SAME PERIOD LAST YEAR.

MARKET ANALYST RONALDO FERNANDES FROM ROYAL RURAL NOTES THAT EVEN THOUGH BRAZIL PROJECTS HIGH EXPORT VOLUMES FOR 2025, EXPORTS ARE UNLIKELY TO HAVE A STRONG IMPACT ON PRICES, AS DOMESTIC SUPPLY AND COMPETITION FROM THE UNITED STATES LIMIT VOLUME GROWTH. HE ALSO POINTS OUT THAT INTERNATIONAL AGREEMENTS SIGNED BY SEVERAL COUNTRIES REQUIRE THE PURCHASE OF U.S. CORN, REDUCING MARKET SPACE FOR BRAZILIAN GRAIN.

“WE’RE TALKING ABOUT AROUND 40 MILLION TONS, WHICH IS A HIGH LEVEL, BUT IT STILL LEAVES SIGNIFICANT CARRYOVER STOCKS. IN 2026, WE WILL COMPETE WITH MASSIVE U.S. PRODUCTION, AND MANY COUNTRIES ARE REQUIRED TO BUY AMERICAN CORN BECAUSE OF RECENT AGREEMENTS. FOR THIS REASON, EXPORTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE, NEITHER UPWARD NOR DOWNWARD, IN THE 2025 FINAL FIGURES.”

FERNANDES EXPLAINS THAT THE BUYER PROFILE HAS ALSO CHANGED, AND BRAZIL IS EXPANDING SALES MAINLY TO COUNTRIES THAT CANNOT PURCHASE U.S. CORN, EITHER DUE TO DIPLOMATIC ISSUES OR TRADE RESTRICTIONS.

“COUNTRIES BUYING FROM BRAZIL TODAY INCLUDE IRAN AND EGYPT. IRAN, FOR INSTANCE, HAS COME BACK STRONGLY BECAUSE IT FACES DIFFICULTIES BUYING FROM THE U.S. AND HAS A BILATERAL SYSTEM WITH BRAZIL THAT EVEN INVOLVES EXCHANGES OF FERTILIZERS. THESE COUNTRIES WITH NO OTHER OPTIONS END UP BEING OUR NATURAL CLIENTS.”

IN TERMS OF REVENUE, BRAZIL HAS COLLECTED US$585.968 MILLION SO FAR THIS MONTH, COMPARED TO US$981.576 MILLION FOR THE ENTIRE MONTH OF NOVEMBER 2024. THE DAILY AVERAGE REVENUE ROSE 13.4%, FROM US$51.661 MILLION TO US$58.596 MILLION PER BUSINESS DAY.

THE AVERAGE PRICE PER TON ALSO INCREASED 5.4% DURING THIS PERIOD, FROM US$207.70 IN NOVEMBER 2024 TO US$219.00 IN NOVEMBER 2025.