BRAZILIAN COFFEE FACES PRICE PRESSURE AT THE END OF 2025 AND INTERNATIONAL FUTURES SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE

THE BRAZILIAN COFFEE MARKET IS EXPERIENCING PRICE PRESSURE AT THE END OF DECEMBER 2025, REFLECTING BOTH DOMESTIC CONDITIONS AND MOVEMENTS IN INTERNATIONAL FUTURES MARKETS. DATA UP TO DECEMBER 19 SHOW THAT THE 60 KG ARABICA COFFEE BAG IS DECLINING IN SEVERAL PRODUCING REGIONS, HIGHLIGHTING:

• GUAXUPÉ (MG): R$ 2,093.00

• CAMPOS GERAIS (MG): R$ 2,165.00

• FRANCA (SP): R$ 2,180.00

• VARGINHA (MG): R$ 2,200.00, WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE LAST UPDATE

DAILY VARIATIONS INDICATE DROPS OF UP TO 6.70% IN SOME LOCATIONS, SHOWING A WEAKENING OF PRICES COMPARED TO PREVIOUS WEEKS. CONILON COFFEE IS QUOTED AROUND R$ 1,180 TO R$ 1,190 PER BAG IN PRODUCING REGIONS SUCH AS ESPÍRITO SANTO. THESE FIGURES SHOW THAT THE BRAZILIAN PHYSICAL MARKET IS FACING REDUCED BUYING PRESSURE AND MORE CONTAINED PRICES TO CLOSE THE YEAR.

INTERNATIONALLY, COFFEE CONTRACT C, A REFERENCE FOR EXPORTERS, IS TRADING AROUND 340.65 POINTS, WITH A DAILY TRADING RANGE BETWEEN 340.00 AND 348.55 POINTS. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS SUGGESTS A STRONG SELL SIGNAL IN MOVING AVERAGES, REFLECTING STABILITY OR SLIGHT DECLINES IN FUTURES PRICES. THIS TREND INDICATES LOWER SPECULATIVE PRESSURE AND A GLOBAL MARKET STILL SUPPLIED.

SEVERAL FACTORS INFLUENCE THE CURRENT PRICE BEHAVIOR:

1. STRONG GLOBAL SUPPLY: PRODUCTION HAS INCREASED IN MAJOR PRODUCING COUNTRIES, INCLUDING BRAZIL AND VIETNAM, RELIEVING STOCK PRESSURE AND LIMITING PRODUCT APPRECIATION.

2. TARIFFS AND GLOBAL TRADE: RECENT CHANGES IN EXPORT AND IMPORT TARIFFS IN RELEVANT MARKETS, SUCH AS THE UNITED STATES, HAVE INCREASED THE COMPETITIVENESS OF BRAZILIAN COFFEE, IMPACTING PRICE DYNAMICS.

3. FAVORABLE CLIMATE: ADEQUATE RAINS IN KEY BRAZILIAN PRODUCING AREAS HAVE REDUCED THE RISK OF CROP LOSSES, HELPING TO CONTAIN PRICE INCREASES.

FOR PRODUCERS AND TRADERS, THE SCENARIO INDICATES A CROP WITH STABLE PRICES, BUT WITHOUT REACHING THE HIGH LEVELS SEEN IN PREVIOUS YEARS. THE COMBINATION OF HIGHER SUPPLY AND LOWER SPECULATION IN FUTURES CONTRACTS RECOMMENDS CAUTION FOR THOSE PLANNING TO SELL COFFEE IN THE COMING MONTHS.

IN SUMMARY, ON SUNDAY, DECEMBER 21, 2025, DOMESTIC BRAZILIAN COFFEE PRICES SHOW DECLINES IN SEVERAL REGIONS, WHILE INTERNATIONAL FUTURES OPERATE WITH A SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE BIAS, POINTING TO A MARKET PRESSURED BY GLOBAL SUPPLY AND FAVORABLE CLIMATIC CONDITIONS.