CORN FUTURES POST WEEKLY LOSSES OF UP TO 2.7% ON B3 AS YEAR-END SLOWDOWN PRESSURES THE MARKET - CHICAGO ALSO ENDS THE WEEK IN NEGATIVE TERRITORY

CORN FUTURES CLOSED THIS FRIDAY (12) WITH CONSISTENT DECLINES ON BOTH THE BRAZILIAN FUTURES EXCHANGE (B3) AND THE CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CBOT), ACCUMULATING LOSSES THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AS THE MARKET MOVES INTO ITS TYPICAL LOW-LIQUIDITY YEAR-END PHASE.

DEMAND DOUBTS EMERGE DESPITE CHINA’S LATEST PURCHASES

ACCORDING TO AGRINVEST, EVEN THOUGH CHINESE PURCHASES IN THE U.S. HAVE ALREADY EXCEEDED 60% OF THE 12 MILLION TONS EXPECTED FOR THE SEASON, THE MARKET IS BEGINNING TO QUESTION THE STRENGTH OF GLOBAL DEMAND. TOTAL BUYING REMAINS ABOUT 25% BELOW THE SAME PERIOD LAST YEAR, RAISING UNCERTAINTY ABOUT SHORT-TERM CONSUMPTION.

ROBUST U.S. CROP AND COMFORTABLE STOCKS ADD PRESSURE

ROBERTO CARLOS RAFAEL, ANALYST AT GERMINAR CORRETORA, EMPHASIZES THAT CHICAGO REMAINS UNDER PRESSURE DUE TO CONFIRMATION OF A STRONG U.S. HARVEST.ENDING STOCKS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR 52 MILLION TONS, A LEVEL CONSIDERED COMFORTABLE AND SUFFICIENT TO WEIGH ON PRICES.

THE JANUARY USDA SUPPLY-AND-DEMAND REPORT WILL BE KEY TO CONFIRM YIELD AND HARVESTED AREA. UNTIL THEN, BROAD SUPPLY EXPECTATIONS CONTINUE TO DOMINATE PRICE FORMATION.

RAFAEL ALSO NOTES THAT U.S. CORN IS CURRENTLY MORE COMPETITIVE THAN BRAZILIAN CORN, SUPPORTING A STRONGER PACE OF U.S. EXPORTS. STARTING IN FEBRUARY, THE MARKET WILL CLOSELY TRACK U.S. FARMERS’ PLANTING INTENTIONS AS THEY REMAIN UNDECIDED BETWEEN CORN AND SOYBEANS FOR THE NEXT SEASON.

CHICAGO CORN FUTURES — FRIDAY CLOSE

• DEC/25: US$ 4.31 (-3.75 POINTS | -0.86%)

• MAR/26: US$ 4.40 (-5.75 POINTS | -1.29%)

• MAY/26: US$ 4.49 (-5.25 POINTS | -1.16%)

• JUL/26: US$ 4.55 (-4.50 POINTS | -0.98%)

WEEKLY PERFORMANCE — CBOT

• DEC/25: -1.20%

• MAR/26: -0.90%

• MAY/26: -0.72%

• JUL/26: -0.60%

IN BRAZIL, B3 CORN FUTURES ALSO END THE WEEK LOWER

AGRINVEST HIGHLIGHTS THAT TRADINGS ARE CLOSING THE LAST COMMERCIAL WINDOWS OF THE 2024/25 SEASON, WHILE THE MARKET SHIFTS INTO THE SLOW PACE TYPICAL OF LATE DECEMBER. THE SECOND HALF OF THE MONTH USUALLY SEES VERY LOW LIQUIDITY DUE TO FEWER BUSINESS DAYS AND MANY MARKET PARTICIPANTS STEPPING AWAY FOR THE HOLIDAYS.

RAFAEL NOTES THAT RECENT WEEKS HAVE SHOWN LIMITED VOLATILITY, WITH SPORADIC MOVES BOTH IN THE PHYSICAL MARKET AND ON B3, BUT WITHOUT ENOUGH MOMENTUM TO SUSTAIN GAINS. OVERALL, BOTH MARKETS HAVE RETURNED TO A WEAK TONE.

JANUARY OUTLOOK AND THE 2026 SAFRINGA

LOOKING AHEAD, MARKET ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO PICK UP ONLY FROM THE SECOND OR THIRD WEEK OF JANUARY. AT THAT POINT, BUYERS RETURN TO THE MARKET, AND MANY WAREHOUSES AND COOPERATIVES WILL NEED TO FREE UP SPACE FOR THE ARRIVING SOYBEAN CROP, A MOVE THAT COULD INCREASE CORN AVAILABILITY AND ADD DOWNWARD PRESSURE ON PRICES.

REGARDING THE 2026 SAFRINGA, THE PLANTING PACE WILL BE A KEY POINT TO WATCH. MOST SOYBEAN AREAS, WHICH DETERMINE THE CORN PLANTING WINDOW, ARE BEING SOWN WITHIN A NORMAL RANGE. RAFAEL EXPECTS BETTER CORN PRICES NEXT SEASON, PROVIDED WEATHER CONDITIONS SUPPORT GOOD PRODUCTIVITY. DEMAND FROM THE CORN ETHANOL INDUSTRY IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BE STRONG, WITH CONSUMPTION PROJECTED AT AROUND 29 MILLION TONS IN 2025/26, REQUIRING HIGHER STOCK LEVELS AT ETHANOL PLANTS.