CORN HOLDS STEADY IN BRAZIL BUT POSTS WEEKLY LOSSES AS MARKETS WAIT FOR USDA DATA

CORN PRICES CLOSED FRIDAY WITH LIMITED MOVEMENT IN BOTH INTERNATIONAL AND BRAZILIAN MARKETS, AS INVESTORS ADOPTED A CAUTIOUS STANCE AHEAD OF KEY USDA REPORTS DUE EARLY NEXT WEEK. DESPITE THE DAY’S STABILITY, BRAZILIAN FUTURES ENDED THE WEEK WITH LOSSES, REFLECTING A SLOWDOWN IN DEMAND AND A BROADER WAIT AND SEE APPROACH ACROSS THE MARKET.

IN CHICAGO, CORN FUTURES TRADED NEAR UNCHANGED LEVELS, WITH ONLY MODEST DECLINES IN THE MAIN CONTRACTS. TRADERS REMAINED FOCUSED ON THE USDA’S UPCOMING SUPPLY AND DEMAND UPDATE, QUARTERLY GRAIN STOCKS REPORT, AND THE ANNUAL CROP PRODUCTION SUMMARY, WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO PROVIDE FINAL ESTIMATES FOR U.S. CORN AND SOYBEAN PRODUCTION IN 2025 AND POTENTIALLY SET THE NEAR TERM PRICE DIRECTION.

ON A WEEKLY BASIS, CHICAGO CORN FUTURES STILL POSTED SMALL GAINS, SUGGESTING THAT PART OF THE MARKET IS POSITIONING FOR POSSIBLY SUPPORTIVE NUMBERS, INCLUDING ANTICIPATED DOWNWARD REVISIONS TO U.S. CORN SUPPLY. THIS EXPECTATION HAS HELPED LIMIT DOWNSIDE MOVES DESPITE LOW SHORT TERM VOLATILITY.

IN BRAZIL, CORN FUTURES ON THE B3 EXCHANGE ALSO SHOWED MIXED AND NARROW MOVEMENTS ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER, OVER THE WEEK, PRICES DECLINED BY AS MUCH AS 1.7 PERCENT, MARKING A SHIFT FROM THE END OF 2025, WHEN TEMPORARY DEMAND GROWTH HAD SUPPORTED THE MARKET AS BUYERS MOVED TO REPLENISH INVENTORIES.

WITH THE START OF 2026, THAT BUYING INTEREST HAS EASED, LEADING TO A PERIOD OF PRICE CONSOLIDATION. MARKET ANALYSTS NOTE THAT THIS PULLBACK IS LINKED TO A SHORT TERM PAUSE IN PURCHASES, BUT THERE ARE EARLY SIGNS THAT DOMESTIC DEMAND COULD RECOVER IN THE COMING MONTHS.

STRUCTURAL FACTORS CONTINUE TO UNDERPIN A POSITIVE DEMAND OUTLOOK FOR BRAZILIAN CORN. DOMESTIC CONSUMPTION HAS INCREASED STEADILY IN RECENT YEARS AND IS EXPECTED TO GROW FURTHER IN 2026, DRIVEN MAINLY BY THE ANIMAL FEED SECTOR AND THE EXPANSION OF CORN ETHANOL PLANTS. THIS TREND MAY HELP ESTABLISH A PRICE FLOOR OVER THE MEDIUM TERM.

MARKET ATTENTION IS ALSO TURNING TO BRAZIL’S SECOND CORN CROP. PLANTING WINDOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE TIGHT IN SEVERAL REGIONS, AND COMPETITION FROM OTHER CROPS COULD ALTER THE PRODUCTION MIX OF THE SAFRINHA. THESE FACTORS ADD UNCERTAINTY TO THE SUPPLY OUTLOOK LATER IN THE YEAR.

IN THE PHYSICAL MARKET, PRICES REMAINED LARGELY UNCHANGED ACROSS KEY PRODUCING REGIONS, CONFIRMING THE CURRENT STANDSTILL IN TRADING ACTIVITY. OVERALL, THE CORN MARKET ENTERS MID JANUARY WITH LOW VOLATILITY, FOCUSED ON UPCOMING USDA DATA AND SIGNALS OF A RECOVERY IN DOMESTIC DEMAND THAT WILL BE CRITICAL IN SHAPING PRICE TRENDS IN 2026.